The Half-Life of Facts : How Knowledge Changes

Posted by Gopal Unnikrishna

  
The Half-Life of Facts : How Knowledge Changes
       Scientometrics: The Science of Science

  In early Astronomy there were nine planets in the solar system. None were known to exist outside it. Since then, astronomers have spotted over 800 planets around other stars  and demoted Pluto to a mere "dwarf planet". Even a cursory glance at other fields of science reveals similar patterns.
    Samuel Arbesman, a mathematician at Harvard, calls this "The Half-life of Facts", He explains that this churn of knowledge is like radioactive decay: you cannot predict which individual fact is going to succumb to it, but you can know how long it takes for half the facts in a discipline to become obsolete. Such quantitative analysis of science has become known as scientometrics.
    Put simply, scientometrics is the science of science. It grew out of bibliometrics, the science of books and research papers. In bibliometrics the unit of measurement is a research paper. Librarians were some of the first people to do this They had to grapple with the question what to carry on their shelves. They had to calculate which fields get overturned really rapidly, in other words, which papers and books people were unlikely to care about in the future.
    But bibliometrics is only one sub field of scientometrics. There are all kinds of ways that you can quantify science: you can measure the number of discoveries that are occurring within a particular field, the number of elements in the periodic table, etc. Broadly, scientometrics is about quantifying and understanding how science occurs. That includes both the social aspects of science and the relationship between science and technology. It is about how the facts of the world—the stuff we know—grow in number, and how they change.
   In saying that a fact has a half-life, one is trying to illustrate how knowledge changes and this is best done by making an analogy to radioactivity. When you have a big chunk of uranium, you can graph out the decay; you can say it takes 4.47 billion years for half of the atoms in a chunk of uranium to break down. You aren't going to know which half, but you know the overall rate of the decay. And the same thing is true for science, and for knowledge in general. For example, in the area of medical science dealing with hepatitis and cirrhosis, two liver diseases, researchers actually measured how long it takes for half of the knowledge in these fields to be overturned. What they found is that there is a nice, smooth rate of decay; you can predict: that every 45 years, half of this particular sort of knowledge gets outdated.
    What scientific fields decay the slowest—or the fastest—and what drives that difference?Well it depends.  Medicine still has a very short half-life; in fact it is one of the areas where knowledge changes the fastest. One of the slowest is mathematics, because when you prove something in mathematics it is pretty much a settled matter unless someone finds an error in one of your proofs. Social sciences have a much faster rate of decay than the physical sciences,
    The whole concept calls attention to the human habit of becoming accustomed to whatever state of affairs is true when a situation is initially examined. By showing how knowledge about the world shifts systematically, you seem to be suggesting a renewed vigilance against growing complacency about knowledge of the world.
    It  shows people how knowledge changes. But at the same time It wants to say, now that you know how knowledge changes, you have to be on guard, so you are not shocked when your children coming home to tell you that dinosaurs have feathers.


Source

Israel-Arab Conflict

Arab Countries

Posted by Gopal Unnikrishna


Israel-Arab Conflict

Jews are one of the people who originally inhabited the historical Semitic speaking region of Canaan, the area roughly corresponding to Levant, ie present -day Israel, Palestinian territories, Lebanon, and the western parts of Jordan and Syria.  Israel became a nation for the first time in about 1300 BCE. King David established the city of Jerusalem as the capital of the whole Land of Israel. . With their conquest of other people in the area in 1272 BCE., the Jews had dominion over the land for one thousand years with a continuos presence there for the past 3,300 years.

Then about 2000 years ago Romans conquered Jerusalem. Jews were expelled and dispersed to diaspora in Babylon. After the Romans, Jerusalem was ruled by the Christian and Muslim crusaders, followed by Turkish Muslim Ottoman Empire from 1571 to 1917, and thereafter by the British till 1948.. Throughout this time, for centuries, Jews prayed for their return from the diaspora to their lost homeland.

During the first half of the 20th century there were major waves of immigration of Jews back to Israel from the Arab countries and from Europe. The formation of a land for the Jews became a major international issue. The area called Palestine included the territories of present day Israel and Jordan. Under Lausanne agreement of 1923 Turkey transferred all claims to Palestine to mandatory power Britain. In 1922 Britain allocated nearly 80% of Palestine to Transjordan. In 1947 UN partitioned this remaining land into two states, a second Arab state, Palestine, and Israel. Thus In 1948 Jews reestablished their sovereignty over their ancient homeland with the establishment of the modern State of Israel.

It was only after the Jews re-inhabited their historic homeland of Judea and Samaria, that the myth of a Palestinian nation was created and marketed worldwide. There has never been a land known as Palestine governed by Palestinians. Palestinians are Arabs indistinguishable from Arabs throughout the Middle East. The Palestinian National Charter adopted by the PLO states this fact in the first article. .

The UN partition plan of 1947 was rejected by all the Arab countries. Arab leadership in Israel and in the countries surrounding Israel, planned a Jihad, holy war, against Israel and encouraged the Arabs to leave Israel promising their return after they purge the land of Jews. The great majority of Arabs left without ever seeing an Israeli soldier.  Then the  Arab nations initiated four wars against Israel: 1948 War of Independence, 1956 Sinai War, 1967 Six Day War, 1973 Yom Kippur War.  Israel defended itself each time and won. After each war Israeli army withdrew from most of the areas it captured. This is unprecedented in World history.

The number of Jewish refugees from Arab countries is estimated to be a million. This number is greater than the number of Arab refugees who left Israel in 1948, estimated as 343,000. Today, the majority of the people in Israel are the descendants of Jews from Arab countries. The great majority of Arabs in greater Palestine and Israel share the same culture, language and religion. The Arabs in the area began identifying themselves as part of a Palestinian people in 1967, two decades after the establishment of the modern State of Israel

Arab refugee problem was created by the seven Arab countries that attacked Israel in 1948. Arab refugees were intentionally not integrated into the Arab lands.. Theirs is the only refugee group in the world that has not been absorbed into their own peoples' lands.  Arab nations still maintain generations of the descendants of the refugees in so called "refugee camps" under squalid conditions with the hope that someday they will dislodge the Jews in Israel.  Since 1948, after three generations the descendants of the Arab refugees are still called "refugees" and are supported by UN "refugee" funds! With the highest birth rate in Arab countries this population has now grown to about four million. In negotiations, Arab leadership requests the "right of return" of this mass of millions into the tiny land of Israel. The settlement of millions of Arabs in Israel would immediately eliminate Israel as a Jewish state. This is the real aim of the Arab countries, to achieve by supposedly "peaceful" means what they could not achieve by unceasing violence in whole scale wars and daily terrorism. The responsibility for keeping the Arab population who are descendants of the Arab refugees, rests only on the shoulders of the Arab countries that created the problem by attacking Israel in 1948.. The Arab states do not want to solve the refugee problem. They want to keep it as open sore, as an affront to the United Nations and as a weapon against Israel. Arab leaders don't give a damn whether the refugees live or die

The Arab nations are represented by 21 separate countries. The combined territories of Arab countries is 650 fold greater than Israel (see map above comparing size of Israel versus those of Arab countries). Their population is 50 fold greater than Israel. The average per capita GDP in Arab countries is $3,700 versus $18,000 for Israel. This despite the fact that many Arab countries have world's richest oil resources.

It is said that If the Arabs (Muslims) put down their weapons today there would be no more violence, and if the Israelis put down their weapons today there would be no more Israel.

Posted by Gopal Unnikrishnav


Why Are Indians So Entrepreneurial In The U.S.?
    Indians are defying gravity and starting more companies there. Why are entrepreneurs from the subcontinent such overachievers?
    One reason is that Indian entrepreneurs have a very strong support network in the U.S They built organizations and created a U.S. ecosystem of successful Indian entrepreneurs - and, crucially, angel funders - to accelerate newcomers.
    Another factor is the societal value placed on entrepreneurial endeavor. Indian kids think it’s cool to start companies
    Indians benefit from their heritage, which suits them better than many other immigrants to making it in America. They speak English. They come from a democratic society. More than that, they have a serious independent streak. Just like here, Indians are free to speak out against the government In that respect particlarly, culturally, Americans and Indians are similar and that gives Indians a big advantage when they come to America because they fit right in.
    Compare that to the Chinese experience,
    In China you’re terrified of authority, you dare not speak out against the government because you’ll be taken away the next day. There is a culture shock from that perspective - people who come from authoritative regimes are afraid of defying authority. But to be an entrepreneur you need to defy authority, you need to break all the rules, you need to take a risk.

The Wheel of Public Dress

Posted by Gopal Unnikrishna

     Modernism is taking a savage toll of many graceful customs. There was this scene in the TV The Italian-born leader of India’s Congress Party had decorously pulled the sari end over her head right up to the front. The bare head of the Assamese/Bengali girl glistened in the picture Time was when no respectable woman anywhere was ever seen uncovered. For Hindus, it was the sari or dupatta. Muslim women had the burqa or hijab
    European women wore hats, which were de rigueur in church. Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II is probably the hat’s last champion, never being seen without one herself, and ordaining that no hatless female should be admitted into Westminster Abbey when her grandson, Prince William, was married The late Rajmata Gayatri Devi of Jaipur merely pulled the sari over her head and sailed in. Muslim men were as particular about headgear as Muslim women and the last nizam of Hyderabad muttered disapprovingly about the uncovered heads of the Hindu maharajas at Lord Mountbatten’s dinner for the princes.
    .
    Sari language can be as expressive as any flamenco dancer’s fan.Drawing the sari over the head as the band struck up the national anthem. is a simple gesture conveying grace, dignity and respect. Tony Blair’s wife Cherie sported a sari when canvassing ethnic Indian voters. Chester Bowles’ wife wore nothing else, hoping to impress her Indian friends when her husband was US ambassador in Delhi, but embarrassed them instead because she wore it so badly.
  
    But the wheel is turning — or has it turned full circle already? — in the Islamic ummah where more and more women, including Turks, are returning to the hijab. The effect is contagious  Though British women have abandoned the hat, one sees more and more hijabs in the streets of English cities, especially in the Midlands and the North. Even sari-draped Bangladeshi women in Singapore and Malaysia wear the hijab
    Perhaps as Muslims, they feel they ought to flaunt a recognisably Muslim garment. Politics has always shimmered in a sari’s folds and when Pakistan was created, Fatima Jinnah, the Quaid-e-Azam’s sister, declared the garment unpatriotic.
   
    But native Indian women prefer other attire. If it’s not the salwar-kameez ensemble, it’s Western dress. The sari for them is becoming more and more like Japan’s kimono and China’s cheongsam — exotic attire for high days and holidays. We must be thankful that ethnic foreigners keep it alive.



   
    Source: http://www.asianage.com/columnists/return-veil-471

The Changing Demographic Trends in Kerala

Posted by Gopal

That profound demographic transformation is  taking place, indeed, all over the world was the emerging message in an international seminar on “Emerging Fertility Patterns in India: Causes and Implications” organized recently by the Center for Development Studies (CDS) in Thiruvananthapuram, This demographic transition, is marked by low fertility and mortality rates.More than half the world’s population is now living in countries or regions where birth rates are “at or below the level needed to ensure the replacement of generations” (or 2.1 children per woman, a number known as the “replacement rate of fertility”, which denotes a stable population)

Nearly one-third of India is witnessing a trend of below replacement level of fertility today. In Kerala significant changes in the age structure include a decrease in school age population, decrease in proportion of the labor force in about two decades from 2001, decline in young working age population, a doubling of older working age population in two decades ending in 2021 and more unemployment among the older age groups than among the youth in the foreseeable future  Studies on the ageing scenario in Kerala estimate that the size of the population in the age group of 60 years and above in the State is expected to increase from 33 lakh in 2001 to 57 lakh in 2021 and to 120 lakh in 2061. By 2061, the proportion of the elderly would constitute 40 per cent of Kerala’s total population. Of this, 6.7 per cent would be in the age group 60-69 years; 23.8 per cent in the age group 70-79 years; and 9.1 per cent in the age group of 80 years and above.

What this means is a steep rise in the the cost of “dependency burden” of Kerala households in the future. The aged dependency ratio (the number of persons above 60 years of age per 100 persons in the working age group of 15 to 59 years) is to increase from 17 to 76 during the period from 2001 to 2061. Finance Minister K.M. Mani might have had this in mind when he told the Assembly in reply to a debate on the Appropriation Bill in mid-July that an “explosive situation” has ensued in the State with the number of government pensioners exceeding that of serving employees, making the current pension system “unsustainable. Chief Minister Oommen Chandy had added: “The State government pays salary to 5.34 lakh in-service employees and pension to 5.50 lakh retired employees. On an average, an employee continues in government service for 25 to 30 years, and a pensioner draws retirement benefits for an equal number of 25 to 30 years.

 The recent decision by the Kerala Govt. to introduce Participatory Pension Scheme  for its future employees with effect from April next is to be seen in this context.

 Source: CDS.

Foreign Direct Investment in India

Posted by Gopal Unnikrishna

Foreign Direct Investment in India

The retail market in India is alluring to  many foreign economies. Contributing  14% to the national GDP and employing 7% of the total workforce, it  is regarded as the ‘second most attractive retail destination globally.. FICCI in 2003 estimated that the total retail business to be Rs.11,00,000 crores or 44% of GDP. and the sales account for 44% of the total GDP of which food sales form 63%. There are far more retailers in India than other countries in absolute numbers.That about 4% of India’s population is in the retail trade shows how vital this business is to the socio-economic stability in India. . India is said to have the highest shop density in the world. In 2001 there were 11 outlets for every 1,000 people. Most of the unemployed find shelter in this sector.

However the Indian retail is highly fragmented, with about 11
million outlets operating in the country and only 4% of them being larger
than 500 square feet in size. Compare this with the figure of just 0.9 million
in the US, yet catering to more than 13 times of the Indian retail market size.The typical traditional indian retailer follows the low-cost-and-size format, functioning at a small-scale

There are the unorganized and unorganized sections of itThe  unorganized retailing, not subject to licensing, is by far the major form of trade in India, constituting 98% of total trade. The  organised trade under licensing and corporates accounts only for the remaining 2%. Unorganized retail trade employs nearly 3.95 crores, whereas organized trade employs only roughly 5 lakh people. So the former  is to be regarded as a well spread cushion to mitigate the lot of the unemployed millions of the country

Supporters of FDI in retail trade argue that ultimately the
consumer is benefited by both price reductions and improved selection,
brought about by the technology and know-how of foreign players in the
market. This in turn can lead to greater output and domestic consumption
but there are many considerations to show that things are not as simple as that. FDI in retail comes to the nation at a high cost.But the most important factor against FDI driven “modern retailing” is that it is labour displacing to the extent that it can only expand by destroying the traditional retail sector. Retailing is by far the easiest business to enter, with low capital and infrastructure needs, and as such, performs a vital function in the
economy as a social security net for the unemployed.  Entry of foreign players now will most definitely disrupt the current balance of the economy, will render millions of small retailers jobless by closing the small slit of opportunity available to them

The average Indian retailer is relatively small, with a turnover of just Rs.186,075. Only
4% of the 12 million retail outlets were larger than 500 sq.ft in size. The
total turnover of the unorganized retail sector was Rs. 735,000 crores
employing 39.5 mn persons. Contrast this with the largest retailer in the world ‘Wal-Mart’which has a turnover of $ 256 bn. and is growing annually at an average of 12-13% The average size of a Wal-mart is 85,000 sq.ft and the
average turnover of a store was about $ 51 mn.

India has 35 towns each with a population over 1 million. If Wal-Mart were
to open an average Wal-Mart store in each of these cities and they reached
the average Wal-Mart performance per store - we are looking at a turnover
of over Rs. 80,330 mn with only 10195 employees. Extrapolating this with
the average trend in India, it would mean displacing about 4,32,000 persons.
If large FDI driven retailers were to take 20% of the retail trade,  this
would mean a turnover of Rs.800 billion on today’s basis. This would mean
an employment of just 43,540 persons displacing nearly eight million
persons employed in the unorganized retail sector. The agriculture  already employing 60% of the work force and cannot absorb more unemployed. So manufacturing sector is the only other alternative. But with only 17% of our total workforce already
employed in industry, which contributes altogether only 21.7% of our GDP,
this sector can hardly absorb more without a major expansion. Contrary to our need the western concept of efficiency is maximizing output while minimizing the number of workers involved - which will only increase social tensions in a poor and yet developing country like India, where tens of millions are still seeking gainful employment

Foreign corporates with their huge resouces buy big from India and abroad and be able to sell low - severely undercutting the small retailers. Once a monopoly situation is created this will then turn into buying low and selling high. Thus by controlling both ends of the chain, the company could buy cheap and sell dear.

Even without FDI driving it, the corporate owned sector is expanding at a furious
rate. The total size of the corporate owned retail business was Rs. 15,000 crores in 1999 and was projected to grow at a rate of 40% per annum Thus The question then that arises is that since there is obviously no dearth of indigenous capital, what is the need for FDI? It is not that retailing in India is in the need of any technology special to foreign chains.

.Really, retailing is not an activity that can boost GDP by itself. It is only an
intermediate value-adding process. In fastly developing countries like China,it is the manufacturing sector  that is major  Whereas in India, manufacturing contributes a mere 23.1% of the GDP. If there aren’t any goods beingmanufactured, then there will not be many goods to be retailed! This underlines the importance of manufacturing in a developing economy It is evident that the manufacturing sector has been the engine for economic growth in China, which has been growing at 10.1% since 1991. In India, the credit for its 5.9% growth over the corresponding period goes mostly to
the service sector..it is an anomalous situation in India that it is the service sector , contributing 56% of GDP that is major, a situation obtained in developed countries.

Till we can create more jobs in the manufacturing sector we should put the FDI in retail on hold.


source

Posted by Gopal Unnikrishna

Incredible Photos: A Child is Born

Swedesh photographer Lennart Nilsson spent 12 years of his life taking pictures of the foetus
developing in the womb. These incredible photographs were taken with conventional cameras
with macro lenses, an endoscope and scanning electron microscope. Nilsson used a
magnification of hundreds of thousands and worked right in the womb. His first photo of the
human foetus was taken in 1965.

Sperm in the fallopian tube

The egg cell

Will they have a date?

The fallopian tube

 

Two sperms are contacting with the egg cell

The winning sperm

 

Sperm

 

 

5-6 days.
The clump has developed into a blastocyst, containing many more cells,
and has entered the womb

8 days.
The human embryo is attached to a wall of the uterus

The brain starts to develop in the human embryo

24 days.
The one-month-old embryo has no skeleton yet.
There is only a heart that starts beating on the 18th day

4 weeks

4.5 weeks

5 weeks: Approximately 9 mm.
You can now distinguish the face with holes for eyes, nostrils and mouth

40 days.
Embryonic cells form the placenta.
This organ connects the embryo to the uterine wall allowing nutrient uptake,
waste elimination and gas exchange via the woman's blood supply

Eight weeks.
The rapidly-growing embryo is well protected in the foetal sac

10 weeks.
The eyelids are semi-shut. They will close completely in a few days

16 weeks.
The foetus uses its hands to explore its own body and its surroundings

The skeleton consists mainly of flexible cartridge.
A network of blood vessels is visible through the thin skin

18 weeks: Approximately 14 cm.
The foetus can now perceive sounds from the outside world

19 weeks

20 weeks: Approximately 20 cm.
Woolly hair, known as lanugo, covers the entire head

24 weeks

26 weeks

 

 

6 months.
There are still 8-10 weeks ahead, so the little human is getting ready to leave the uterus.
It turns upside down because it will be easier to get out this way