by Gopal Unnikrishna
For decades it has been the assumption in the Arab world that its rulers are too powerful to be confronted by unarmed people. So when Tunisia provided a real, live example of how, when the security forces kill demonstrators the people can raise the agitation to the sblime level of revolution , it was no more a big surprise to Arabs. Suddenly the Middle East's authoritarian states only look solid until the day they turn into clay and revolution seems possible everywhere. Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Libya all seemed more likely candidates to go first. The domino effect is in full swing. Jordan, Algeria, Syria, Yemen and Morocco are all candidates to suffer the same fate. Obviously President Hosni Mubarakhas has run out of carrots, though not quite of sticks.
Yet, it may be too premature to say that the Egyptian turmoil will spread like wild fire in the middle east engulfing most countries there. This is because most of the issues that have brought Egypt to the brink may be more easily solved by Arab countries richer in oil. In neighbouring Libya, for example, the regime has just announced vast spending on public housing in an attempt to buy off discontent.
In the powerful signal the Egyptian uprising is sending to Arabs elsewhere, the crucial to the long-term consequences for the region will be the nature of whatever government eventually wins control of Egypt. The most favourable next step would be if someone known and respected like Mohammed elBaradeior or another figure with similar stature such as Arab League Secretary Amr Moussa.was to become acting president for a few months before free multi-party elections were held.
But such a propitious outcome is by no means guaranteed. Algerian style civil war, a new Saddam Hussein or a Yemeni-style Maoist regime are all remote possibilities and there is a real chance of a military coup.What's more, despite their remarkably cautious role in the revolution so far, elections might well bring the Muslim Brotherhood to power - which, as the ideological twin of Hamas in the Occupied Palestinian Territories would worry many in the West but delight the Islamist tendencies bubbling away beneath the surface of other Middle Eastern states.
Where Egypt goes, history shows that other countries soon follow. Almost every major social or political movement of the last 100 years in middle east started in Egypt - from the Muslim Brotherhood, launched in the city of Ismailia in the 1920s, to Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's chief ideologist.
If Mubarak is removed tidily and replaced by something better, it could have a benign effect on many other countries in the region.
For decades it has been the assumption in the Arab world that its rulers are too powerful to be confronted by unarmed people. So when Tunisia provided a real, live example of how, when the security forces kill demonstrators the people can raise the agitation to the sblime level of revolution , it was no more a big surprise to Arabs. Suddenly the Middle East's authoritarian states only look solid until the day they turn into clay and revolution seems possible everywhere. Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Libya all seemed more likely candidates to go first. The domino effect is in full swing. Jordan, Algeria, Syria, Yemen and Morocco are all candidates to suffer the same fate. Obviously President Hosni Mubarakhas has run out of carrots, though not quite of sticks.
Yet, it may be too premature to say that the Egyptian turmoil will spread like wild fire in the middle east engulfing most countries there. This is because most of the issues that have brought Egypt to the brink may be more easily solved by Arab countries richer in oil. In neighbouring Libya, for example, the regime has just announced vast spending on public housing in an attempt to buy off discontent.
In the powerful signal the Egyptian uprising is sending to Arabs elsewhere, the crucial to the long-term consequences for the region will be the nature of whatever government eventually wins control of Egypt. The most favourable next step would be if someone known and respected like Mohammed elBaradeior or another figure with similar stature such as Arab League Secretary Amr Moussa.was to become acting president for a few months before free multi-party elections were held.
But such a propitious outcome is by no means guaranteed. Algerian style civil war, a new Saddam Hussein or a Yemeni-style Maoist regime are all remote possibilities and there is a real chance of a military coup.What's more, despite their remarkably cautious role in the revolution so far, elections might well bring the Muslim Brotherhood to power - which, as the ideological twin of Hamas in the Occupied Palestinian Territories would worry many in the West but delight the Islamist tendencies bubbling away beneath the surface of other Middle Eastern states.
Where Egypt goes, history shows that other countries soon follow. Almost every major social or political movement of the last 100 years in middle east started in Egypt - from the Muslim Brotherhood, launched in the city of Ismailia in the 1920s, to Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's chief ideologist.
If Mubarak is removed tidily and replaced by something better, it could have a benign effect on many other countries in the region.
