Mubarak Tumbles

Posted by Gopal Unnikrishna

Arab Republic of Egypt bursts out in exultation as Mubarak quits

     His exit countermands, six decades later, the Arab domain's original secular despotism. He was tumbled by a radically fresh force in regional politics — a mostly secular, bloodless, youth-led democracy campaign that fetched Egypt’s civil-libertarian and Islamist resistance groups collectively for the first time below its banner. One after another the demonstrators defied each weapon in the armory of the Egyptian autarchy — foremost the heavily weaponed riot constabulary, and then a governing party militia and ultimately the state’s potent propaganda machine. Mr. Hosni Mubarak* capitulation dispatched a rampart of American foreign policy in the neighborhood. The America, its Arabian allies and Israel are now brooding whether the Egyptian armed forces, which has vowed to hold liberal elections, bequeath a move over  to a new era of parliamentary pizzazz or to a precarious careen into instability or Islamist reign.

The Muslim Brotherhood, the unlawful Islamist social movement averred it represented simply a supporting actor in the rebellion.The fraternity, which was sluggish to keep up the track of its own youth wing into the streets, has pronounced it will not field a nominee as President.

Hosni Mubarak epoch ceased without whatever of the constancy and predictability that constituted as the hallmarks of his incumbency.

Egypt and the Rest of Middle East

by Gopal Unnikrishna

For decades it has been the assumption in the Arab world that its rulers are too powerful to be confronted by unarmed people. So when Tunisia provided a real, live example of how, when the security forces kill demonstrators the people can raise the agitation to the sblime level of revolution ,  it was no more a big surprise to Arabs. Suddenly the Middle East's authoritarian states only look  solid until the day they turn into clay and revolution seems possible everywhere. Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Libya all seemed more likely candidates to go first. The domino effect is in full swing. Jordan, Algeria, Syria, Yemen and Morocco are all candidates to suffer the same fate. Obviously President Hosni Mubarakhas has run out of carrots, though not quite of sticks.


Yet, it may be too premature to say that the Egyptian turmoil will spread like wild fire in the middle east engulfing most countries there. This is because most of the issues that have brought Egypt to the brink may be more easily solved by Arab countries richer in oil. In neighbouring Libya, for example, the regime has just announced vast spending on public housing in an attempt to buy off discontent.


In the powerful signal the Egyptian uprising is sending to Arabs elsewhere, the crucial to the long-term consequences for the region will be the nature of whatever government eventually wins control of Egypt. The most favourable next step would be if someone known and respected like Mohammed elBaradeior or another figure with similar stature such as Arab League Secretary Amr Moussa.was to become acting president for a few months before free multi-party elections were held.

But such a propitious outcome is by no means guaranteed. Algerian style civil war, a new Saddam Hussein or a Yemeni-style Maoist regime are all remote possibilities and there is a real chance of a military coup.What's more, despite their remarkably cautious role in the revolution so far, elections might well bring the Muslim Brotherhood to power - which, as the ideological twin of Hamas in the Occupied Palestinian Territories would worry  many in the West but delight the Islamist tendencies bubbling away beneath the surface of other Middle Eastern states.

Where Egypt goes, history shows that other countries soon follow. Almost every major social or political movement of the last 100 years in middle east started in Egypt - from the Muslim Brotherhood, launched in the city of Ismailia in the 1920s, to Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's chief ideologist.

If Mubarak is removed tidily and replaced by something better, it could have a benign effect on many other countries in the region.