Posted by Gopal
That profound
demographic transformation is taking place, indeed, all over the world
was the emerging message in an international seminar on “Emerging
Fertility Patterns in India: Causes and Implications” organized recently
by the Center for Development Studies (CDS) in Thiruvananthapuram, This
demographic transition, is marked by low fertility and mortality
rates.More than half the world’s population is now living in countries
or regions where birth rates are “at or below the level needed to ensure
the replacement of generations” (or 2.1 children per woman, a number
known as the “replacement rate of fertility”, which denotes a stable
population)
Nearly one-third of India is witnessing a trend of below replacement level of fertility today. In Kerala significant changes in the age structure include a decrease in school age population, decrease in proportion of the labor force in about two decades from 2001, decline in young working age population, a doubling of older working age population in two decades ending in 2021 and more unemployment among the older age groups than among the youth in the foreseeable future Studies on the ageing scenario in Kerala estimate that the size of the population in the age group of 60 years and above in the State is expected to increase from 33 lakh in 2001 to 57 lakh in 2021 and to 120 lakh in 2061. By 2061, the proportion of the elderly would constitute 40 per cent of Kerala’s total population. Of this, 6.7 per cent would be in the age group 60-69 years; 23.8 per cent in the age group 70-79 years; and 9.1 per cent in the age group of 80 years and above.
What this means is a steep rise in the the cost of “dependency burden” of Kerala households in the future. The aged dependency ratio (the number of persons above 60 years of age per 100 persons in the working age group of 15 to 59 years) is to increase from 17 to 76 during the period from 2001 to 2061. Finance Minister K.M. Mani might have had this in mind when he told the Assembly in reply to a debate on the Appropriation Bill in mid-July that an “explosive situation” has ensued in the State with the number of government pensioners exceeding that of serving employees, making the current pension system “unsustainable. Chief Minister Oommen Chandy had added: “The State government pays salary to 5.34 lakh in-service employees and pension to 5.50 lakh retired employees. On an average, an employee continues in government service for 25 to 30 years, and a pensioner draws retirement benefits for an equal number of 25 to 30 years.
The recent decision by the Kerala Govt. to introduce Participatory Pension Scheme for its future employees with effect from April next is to be seen in this context.
Source: CDS.
Nearly one-third of India is witnessing a trend of below replacement level of fertility today. In Kerala significant changes in the age structure include a decrease in school age population, decrease in proportion of the labor force in about two decades from 2001, decline in young working age population, a doubling of older working age population in two decades ending in 2021 and more unemployment among the older age groups than among the youth in the foreseeable future Studies on the ageing scenario in Kerala estimate that the size of the population in the age group of 60 years and above in the State is expected to increase from 33 lakh in 2001 to 57 lakh in 2021 and to 120 lakh in 2061. By 2061, the proportion of the elderly would constitute 40 per cent of Kerala’s total population. Of this, 6.7 per cent would be in the age group 60-69 years; 23.8 per cent in the age group 70-79 years; and 9.1 per cent in the age group of 80 years and above.
What this means is a steep rise in the the cost of “dependency burden” of Kerala households in the future. The aged dependency ratio (the number of persons above 60 years of age per 100 persons in the working age group of 15 to 59 years) is to increase from 17 to 76 during the period from 2001 to 2061. Finance Minister K.M. Mani might have had this in mind when he told the Assembly in reply to a debate on the Appropriation Bill in mid-July that an “explosive situation” has ensued in the State with the number of government pensioners exceeding that of serving employees, making the current pension system “unsustainable. Chief Minister Oommen Chandy had added: “The State government pays salary to 5.34 lakh in-service employees and pension to 5.50 lakh retired employees. On an average, an employee continues in government service for 25 to 30 years, and a pensioner draws retirement benefits for an equal number of 25 to 30 years.
The recent decision by the Kerala Govt. to introduce Participatory Pension Scheme for its future employees with effect from April next is to be seen in this context.
Source: CDS.
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