The Ukrainian Dire Straits

 Posted by Dr. Gopal Unnikrishna Kurup

 The Ukrainian Dire Straits.

It was Syria for some time, and now Ukraine has been added to the woes of the world. President Obama issued a blunt warning to Moscow on Friday that "there will be costs" if Russia sends its troops into Ukraine, saying he is deeply concerned about reports of Russian military movements in the region. Obama had told a hastily convened White House press gathering that Russian military action would violate international law and "would be deeply destabilizing, which is not in the interests of Ukraine, Russia or Europe. It would represent a profound interference in matters that must be determined by the Ukrainian people."

Obama did not say what the United States will do — or can do — to head off Ukraine's threatened slide toward renewed civil conflict and a possible breakup as pro-Russia militants push for secession in Crimea. But he suggested that there would be some sort of international action if Russia intervened. Americans are worried that what is an unfolding nightmare scenario for them since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, is now manifest in the way Putin tries to establish that Russia is back. Till now, the White House has been cautious regarding Ukraine in part because conflict with Russia could disrupt collaboration on other major problems like U.S. cooperation with Russia on the Syrian civil war, the international effort to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran and other issues.

Dominated by people of Russian origin and affinity Ukaraine's Crimean peninsula is in civil revolt aided and abetted by Russia. Ukraine's acting president accused Russia of trying to seize the territory, a semi-autonomous region of Ukraine that is important to Russia for historical and strategic reasons. Authorities in Ukraine closed airspace over the Crimean peninsula late Friday and reports indicated that multiple Russian transport planes had landed at a military air strip near Simferopol, Crimea's regional capital. Russia leases the Crimean port of Sevastopol, the longtime headquarters of its Black Sea fleet. The region's population is dominated by ethnic Russians.

Acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov said Russia was trying to seize territory in Crimea and "provoke us to a military conflict." Although Kiev retains control over Ukrainian military forces in the western and central areas of the country, and even most Russian-leaning areas in the east have refrained from defying the new government, it feels  troops in Crimea may not be reliable in the face of the local population's rejection of Kiev's authority. With pro-Russia gunmen at airports and communications centers, it was unclear whether Kiev could bring in forces to challenge any Russian buildup.

Washington and its European allies have an untested relationship with the fragile new pro-Western government in Kiev, Ukraine's capital. Vice President Joe Biden spoke with Ukraine's prime minister by phone to promise U.S. support, White House advisors said. The president has reportedly directed his aides to coordinate with European allies and to communicate directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin's government. The West's greatest point of leverage, a promised multibillion-dollar bailout to help Ukraine's economy avoid collapse, faces resistance in Congress and in financially strained European capitals.

 It may be that Russia is back, - and back with a bang.